Should we Invest in Commodity?

There are plenty of good reasons to bet on commodities, but if you’re new to investing that’s probably a better way to think of it: as a bet. Since you’ll be betting against experts who do this for a living, your odds probably won’t be much better than playing the slots in Atlantic City.

Commodities speculation is about the riskiest place to deploy your savings: it’s really in a different category than investing. Commodities exchanges are really supercharged betting parlors made up of a series of hyperactive markets where you can bet on the price movements of a variety of products. The list includes precious metals, raw materials, grains and meat, oil and gas — even financial products like Treasury bills.

Though they carry big risks for individual investors, commodities markets were originally set up to help spread the risk of price changes among a large pool of players. Using futures contracts, for example, a farmer can sell a crop before it’s planted, even though he might get a better price in the future (which is where the name comes from.) If a boom in demand drives up prices by harvest time, the buyer of the futures contract wins. But if a bumper crop floods the market and prices plunge, our speculator could lose everything. No matter what happens, the farmer has enough money in the bank to buy the seed for next year's crop.